Companies Become Targets: Russia's Two-Front Strategy

The Wall Street Journal's recent revelation of Russia's Special Tasks Department (SSD) reveals the range of strategies Russia employs in war. The unit, formed in 2023 and taking over from GRU unit 29155, operates from the GRU headquarters known as The Aquarium and is thought to be behind a series of attacks on people and businesses in Europe.

The department is led by GRU Major General Andrey Averyanov who was previously commander of Unit 29155, infamously implicated in the Skripal poisoning and explosions at arms factories. The SSD has already established a significant operational footprint through activities including assassination attempts against corporate leaders, DHL cargo bombings, and multiple arson attacks. Their methods appear twofold: strategic efforts to distract and divide NATO allies and tactical strikes against people and companies related directly to the war in Ukraine.

The attacks on commercial and industrial targets in Europe reveal a strategy that combines direct action against military suppliers with attempts to probe and exploit vulnerabilities in civilian infrastructure. In May 2024, SSD operatives set fire to a Berlin factory owned by Diehl, a defence supplier to Ukraine, a typical example of direct action. By July 2024, their approach had expanded: incendiary devices planted on DHL shipments detonated at hubs in Leipzig and Birmingham, suggesting tests of how supply chain disruptions might cascade through interconnected economies. The plot to assassinate Rheinmetall's CEO encapsulates both, targeting a defence manufacturer while sending a chilling message to corporate leaders across Europe.

As Trump begins his second term, he is driving for a peace settlement in Ukraine and repeating demands, made in his first term, that NATO members hit the agreed 5% of GDP spending. On February 12th, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised that European nations must substantially increase their military contributions. What such a peace settlement might mean remains unclear. It may bring stability or embolden further Russian expansion. The market appears to be betting that the risk of the latter is real. Defence industry share prices have surged since Hegseth's statement, with BAE Systems up 11%, Chemring 13%, and Rheinmetall AG, perhaps not coincidentally a target of the SSD, up by 28%. Even if hostilities cease in Ukraine, Russia's pressure on NATO's eastern flank seems likely to continue, particularly if American commitment to European defence wavers.

As these patterns of state-sponsored operations emerge, businesses face a new reality. The distinction between commercial operations and national security is fading, particularly in sectors like defence, energy, and critical infrastructure. Business planning and risk management must now incorporate expertise that bridges commercial, military, and intelligence domains, especially as the architecture of European security undergoes its most significant shift since the Cold War.